A Spotlight on This Week's Energy Market Trends

Sydney, Australia - 17th October 2023

Energy Action brings you the latest insights into the Australian energy market in this week's update. We've seen softening prices across the states this week. With milder weather driving these prices. We're in a time of temporary calm and stability before the storm that's set to bring a possible upward trend in prices as we head into the El Niño summer. We recommend businesses take advantage of these current lulls and lock in their next energy contract now before these set prices increase.

Spot Prices

In the spot market, we've seen a significant softening in average prices across several states. NSW and QLD benefited from milder weather and increased renewable generation, resulting in lower prices. SA and VIC experienced even more substantial reductions in spot prices, with minimal evening peak volatility. While TAS had a few volatility spikes, its averages remained competitive. WA continued to see lower daytime values.

Spot Price Averages:

• NSW: down to $38.89, was $54.10 last week. 
• QLD: down to $28.24, was $44.14 last week.

Latest data available from Utilibox
 

• SA: down to $11.91, was $38.85 last week​.
• VIC: down to $11.26, was $42.35 last week​.

Latest data available from Utilibox
 

• TAS: down to $22.13, was $47.37 last week. 
• WA: down to $60.98, was $89.57 last week.

Latest data available from Utilibox

Weather Update

The weather forecast for major cities is as follows:

• Sydney: Expect rain early in the week, with a humid weekend ahead. 
• Melbourne: Cool and wet, with mid-twenties in the middle of the week. 
• Brisbane: Warm and humid, with occasional storms. 
• Adelaide: Sub-twenty temperatures, potentially rainy. Hobart: Rainy and cold at times, with sunny spells and low twenties. 
• Perth: Hot initially, with a more settled outlook for the rest of the week. 

Contracts

Contract markets have seen fluctuations too:

• NSW: Softened across both Cal 24 & Cal 25. 
• QLD: Retraced slightly on quarterly contracts. 
• VIC: Experienced smaller fluctuations and a slight downturn. 
• SA: Some anomalies in trading activity, particularly in the Q2 24 contract. Fuel Generation Mix

Latest data available from Utilibox

The Generation Mix Varied Across States:

NSW & QLD: Consistent coal, wind, solar, and some hydro and gas peaking. 
VIC & SA: Excess generation, mainly pushed into NSW, with solid renewable generation. 
TAS & WA: TAS contributed significant renewable energy, with WA transitioning to the 5-minute market.

Gas Markets

Spot gas prices remained below $10.00 in all states but have not reached previous lows. Forward retail contracts still command a premium. As we enter a period of potential price volatility, understanding the risks is crucial.

Latest data available from Utilibox

Environmental Certificates

Environmental certificate markets showed mixed results:

LGCs: A brief rally last week was short-lived, with prices softening. 

STCs: Spot trades held steady, but forward trades created a backwardation situation. 

VEECs: Slight firming but no clear direction. 

ESCs: Directionless market, lacking clear trends. 

ACCUs: Resistance at $30.00, with prices rebounding to $32.00. 

Latest data available from Utilibox

For more information on the state of the energy market, check out out monthly Energy Market Wraps. 

About Energy Action:

Energy Action is a leading energy consulting business with over 20 years of experience, specialising in energy procurement, energy management, and net zero solutions. We provide tailored energy solutions to businesses, helping them navigate the complex energy landscape and achieve sustainability goals.

Media Contact:

Sara Favorito
mediareleases@energyaction.com.au

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Note to editors: This press release is provided by Energy Action and reflects market conditions at the time of publication. For the latest updates and detailed analysis, please contact Energy Action directly.