Gartner HR Research Reveals AI Will Create More Jobs Than It Eliminates Beginning in 2028

20 May 2026 - Starting in 2028, AI will create more jobs than it eliminates, making robust internal talent pipelines critical to meet talent demand, according to Gartner, Inc., a business and technology insights company.

"AI is ultimately going to result in more job gains than losses, but in the process it's going to break down millions of careers," said Kaelyn Lowmaster, Director Analyst in the Gartner HR practice. "As AI changes how work gets done, organisations must rethink how employees gain expertise and experience, or they will find themselves without ready talent for the jobs AI helps create."

As organisations rapidly adopt AI and redesign work around it, they are already reshaping roles and structures. A December 2025 Gartner survey of 110 HR leaders revealed 40% of organisations have eliminated outdated roles to better align with evolving business needs and nearly half have redesigned team structures to be more cross functional or agile.

As career paths narrow or disappear, many employees lack clear routes to advancement. AI is accelerating this shift by reducing development opportunities and automating traditional entry-level roles, leaving junior talent with fewer chances to build judgement and foundational expertise.

To successfully leverage AI to its fullest, organisations must shift from experience-based progression to skills-based advancement systems. Their focus must move to building capability faster and advancing talent differently. 

To maintain a resilient internal talent supply, Gartner has identified two strategies CHROs can prioritise: 

1. Accelerate Development of New Key Capabilities
As AI automates or augments many core tasks, CHROs must instead take a more deliberate approach to building critical skills. 

CHROs need to identify the most critical skills for next-level success and deprioritise those that are becoming obsolete. Organisations must then create the infrastructure to support accelerated development, including incentives that reward building capabilities and scalable learning mechanisms, such as simulations and guided practice environments.

"Performance at one level is no longer a proxy for readiness for more senior roles," said Lowmaster. "With AI support, employees can meet or exceed their current goals without developing the depth of expertise required for more complex roles."

2. Create Advancement Opportunities Based on Skills, Not Roles
CHROs can prioritise skills promise by identifying employees with the foundational capabilities, learning agility and adaptability required to succeed in higher-level roles, even if they lack a perfect match to historical role criteria.

As AI continues to reshape roles and ways of working, employees, and most notably leaders, must be able to navigate ambiguity, guide teams through continuous transformation and succeed without relying on past experience alone. The most successful change leaders take deliberate action to make change routine, empowering employees to pursue their own learning opportunities as AI reshapes work.

"Organisations that invest now in rebuilding career advancement pathways based on skills and adaptability will be best positioned to meet future talent demand, whereas those that don't risk creating deep capability gaps just as AI-driven growth accelerates," said Lowmaster.

Gartner clients can read more in the report: AI Is Breaking Careers: Reset Your Approach to Internal Talent Advancement.

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The Gartner HR practice brings together the best business and technology insights across Gartner to offer individual decision makers strategic business advice on the mission-critical priorities that cut across the HR function. Additional information is available at http://www.gartner.com/en/human-resources/human-resources-leaders. Follow news and updates from the Gartner HR practice on X and LinkedIn using #GartnerHR. 

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